The read
Model: ATL by 4 · 238 total
Spread
ATL -2.5
1.5 pt edge
Game total
Under 240.5
2.5 pt edge
MIA total
Under 119.5
2.5 pt edge
ATL total
Under 122.5
1.5 pt edge
Moneyline lean ATL. Model against the spread this season: 24-16 (60%). Early season: 4 games played, so projections swing more than usual.
The situation
MIALast 5: 0-41 day rest607 mi travel0-4 recordLost 4 straight1 out: Fontecchio
ATLLast 5: 2-21 day rest701 mi travel2-2 recordLost 2 straight1 out: Gueye
Tale of the tape
109
121
43.2%
46.7%
30.6%
33.1%
12.2
14
72.1%
74.0%
18.8
18.5
10
13.2
30.5
28.5
24.8
31.5
14.2
13.8
8.2
11.2
5
3.2
22
24.2
110
114
43.0%
44.8%
37.1%
26.5%
13
13
92.0%
71.4%
23
15
8
17
29
25
22
35
13
13
9
9
4
2
23
21
Points, recent
Last 3: 110 vs 117.3Last 5: 109 vs 121Last 10: 109 vs 121
Small sample: 4 games so far.
Projected lineups
Season per-game averages
Miami Heat
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Davion Mitchell | 18 | 0 | 7 | 54% |
| SG | Klay Thompson | 9 | 1 | 0 | 34% |
| SF | Andrew Wiggins | 8 | 3 | 1 | 40% |
| PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 28 | 9 | 5 | 54% |
| C | Bam Adebayo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 39% |
Atlanta Hawks
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | CJ McCollum | 17 | 1 | 2 | 54% |
| SG | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 18 | 3 | 3 | 44% |
| SF | Dyson Daniels | 13 | 5 | 3 | 52% |
| PF | Jalen Johnson | 21 | 9 | 8 | 43% |
| C | Onyeka Okongwu | 9 | 6 | 2 | 41% |
Recent games
MIA
- L10/26vs Dallas Mavericks 109-113
- L10/24@ Charlotte Hornets 110-115
- L10/23vs Detroit Pistons 111-128
- L10/21vs Minnesota Timberwolves 106-131
ATL
- L10/26@ Houston Rockets 110-120
- L10/24vs Houston Rockets 114-121
- W10/23@ Charlotte Hornets 128-81
- W10/21@ Orlando Magic 132-125
Injury report
Latest update Oct 28, 2026
MIA
-
OutSimone FontecchioOct 28
Fontecchio (illness) is out for Wednesday's game against the Hawks.
ATL
-
OutHenri VeesaarSep 21
Veesaar was diagnosed with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the 2026-27 season, the Hawks announced Monday.
-
OutMouhamed GueyeOct 19
Gueye underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured left foot that he suffered during a workout last week, Brad Rowland of the Locked…
Quarters & race to
| Per game | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Paint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 29 | 26.5 | 24.5 | 29 | 48 |
| ATL | 30.5 | 33 | 27 | 30.5 | 57 |
First to 10 / 15 this season
| MIA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 1 of 4 25% | 1 of 4 25% |
| First to 10, Q2 | 2 of 4 50% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 10, Q3 | 2 of 4 50% | 1 of 4 25% |
| First to 10, Q4 | 2 of 4 50% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q1 | – | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q2 | 3 of 4 75% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q3 | 1 of 4 25% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q4 | 2 of 4 50% | 2 of 4 50% |
Head to head
| Meetings | MIA first | ATL first | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 9 | 7 (78%) | 2 (22%) |
| First to 10, Q2 | 9 | 5 (56%) | 4 (44%) |
| First to 10, Q3 | 9 | 4 (44%) | 5 (56%) |
| First to 10, Q4 | 9 | 7 (78%) | 2 (22%) |
| First to 15, Q1 | 9 | 5 (56%) | 4 (44%) |
| First to 15, Q2 | 9 | 5 (56%) | 4 (44%) |
| First to 15, Q3 | 9 | 3 (33%) | 6 (67%) |
| First to 15, Q4 | 9 | 8 (89%) | 1 (11%) |
Meetings through Apr 12, 2026.