The read
Model: HOU by 9 · 225 total
Spread
HOU -8.5
0.5 pt edge
Game total
Under 226.5
1.5 pt edge
HOU total
Under 117.5
0.5 pt edge
MIL total
Under 109.5
1.5 pt edge
Moneyline lean HOU. Model against the spread this season: 24-16 (60%). Early season: 4 games played, so projections swing more than usual.
The situation
HOULast 5: 4-01 day rest1,008 mi travel4-0 recordWon 4 straight3 out: Sengun, Smart, Adams
MILLast 5: 1-31 day restHome game 2 in a row1-3 record
Tale of the tape
120.8
116.8
50.9%
46.2%
39.0%
35.2%
12
14.5
83.8%
70.4%
23.2
17.2
12.5
14.2
32.8
37.8
28.8
26
16.2
17
9.8
5.2
5
4.2
21
26
117.5
117.5
48.5%
46.5%
40.0%
35.6%
12
16
90.7%
61.7%
24.5
14.5
10.5
13.5
33
39
26
28
14.5
15
8.5
5.5
4.5
5.5
21
24
Points, recent
Last 3: 118.3 vs 117Last 5: 120.8 vs 116.8Last 10: 120.8 vs 116.8
Small sample: 4 games so far.
Projected lineups
Season per-game averages
Houston Rockets
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Fred VanVleet | 8 | 3 | 7 | 31% |
| SG | Amen Thompson | 17 | 9 | 4 | 55% |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 23 | 6 | 3 | 53% |
| PF | Tari Eason | 11 | 4 | 0 | 51% |
| C | Jabari Smith Jr | 16 | 6 | 2 | 48% |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Ryan Rollins | 13 | 4 | 4 | 39% |
| SG | Tyler Herro | 23 | 5 | 5 | 46% |
| SF | Jaime Jaquez Jr | 17 | 8 | 2 | 54% |
| PF | Kyle Kuzma | 12 | 8 | 3 | 47% |
| C | Myles Turner | 7 | 5 | 2 | 32% |
Recent games
HOU
- W10/26vs Atlanta Hawks 120-110
- W10/24@ Atlanta Hawks 121-114
- W10/23@ San Antonio Spurs 114-110
- W10/21vs Dallas Mavericks 128-110
MIL
- W10/26vs Indiana Pacers 110-102
- L10/24@ Philadelphia 76ers 116-127
- L10/23vs Chicago Bulls 125-132
- L10/21@ Washington Wizards 116-128
Injury report
Latest update Oct 28, 2026
HOU
-
OutAlperen SengunOct 27
Sengun (back) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Bucks.
-
OutMarcus SmartOct 28
Smart (forearm) is out for Wednesday's game against the Bucks.
-
OutSteven AdamsOct 26
Head coach Ime Udoka said Monday that Adams could be out "a week or two" due to his right soleus strain, Lachard Binkley of SI.com reports.
MIL
Nobody listed.
Quarters & race to
| Per game | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Paint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 31.5 | 31.8 | 28.8 | 28.8 | 51.5 |
| MIL | 27.8 | 29.3 | 35 | 24.8 | 50.5 |
First to 10 / 15 this season
| HOU | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 4 of 4 100% | 3 of 4 75% |
| First to 10, Q2 | 4 of 4 100% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 10, Q3 | 3 of 4 75% | 4 of 4 100% |
| First to 10, Q4 | 2 of 4 50% | 1 of 4 25% |
| First to 15, Q1 | 2 of 4 50% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q2 | 4 of 4 100% | 2 of 4 50% |
| First to 15, Q3 | 4 of 4 100% | 3 of 4 75% |
| First to 15, Q4 | 2 of 4 50% | 1 of 4 25% |
Head to head
| Meetings | HOU first | MIL first | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 4 | 2 (50%) | 2 (50%) |
| First to 10, Q2 | 4 | 1 (25%) | 3 (75%) |
| First to 10, Q3 | 4 | 3 (75%) | 1 (25%) |
| First to 10, Q4 | 4 | 2 (50%) | 2 (50%) |
| First to 15, Q1 | 4 | 3 (75%) | 1 (25%) |
| First to 15, Q2 | 4 | 2 (50%) | 2 (50%) |
| First to 15, Q3 | 4 | 3 (75%) | 1 (25%) |
| First to 15, Q4 | 4 | 2 (50%) | 2 (50%) |
Meetings through Apr 01, 2026.