The read
Model: DEN by 1 · 241 total
Spread
NO +4.5
3.5 pt edge
Game total
Over 240.5
0.5 pt edge
DEN total
Under 122.5
1.5 pt edge
NO total
Over 118.5
1.5 pt edge
Moneyline lean DEN. Model against the spread this season: 24-16 (60%). Early season: 3 games played, so projections swing more than usual.
The situation
DENLast 5: 1-21 day rest1,082 mi travel1-2 record3 out: Diallo, Strawther, Jones
NOLast 5: 0-33 days rest1,082 mi travel0-3 recordLost 3 straight1 out: Missi
Tale of the tape
113
124.7
45.7%
48.0%
31.1%
30.9%
11
9.7
76.2%
86.2%
21.3
27
14.3
12.3
31
33
24.7
24.7
14.7
15.7
9.7
11.7
5
5.3
22.7
27.3
84
120
37.8%
42.7%
26.7%
33.3%
8
10
63.6%
91.9%
14
34
19
14
34
35
17
23
22
14
7
11
2
6
23
24
Points, recent
Last 3: 113 vs 124.7Last 5: 113 vs 124.7Last 10: 113 vs 124.7
Small sample: 3 games so far.
Projected lineups
Season per-game averages
Denver Nuggets
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jamal Murray | 22 | 6 | 5 | 43% |
| SG | Christian Braun | 10 | 6 | 1 | 46% |
| SF | Bryce Hopkins | 5 | 2 | 0 | 35% |
| PF | Aaron Gordon | 11 | 5 | 2 | 36% |
| C | Nikola Jokic | 22 | 9 | 8 | 41% |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Dejounte Murray | 20 | 5 | 6 | 49% |
| SG | Jeremiah Fears | 8 | 3 | 1 | 29% |
| SF | Trey Murphy III | 15 | 5 | 2 | 47% |
| PF | Zion Williamson | 20 | 3 | 2 | 58% |
| C | DeAndre Jordan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 33% |
Recent games
DEN
- L10/26vs Golden State Warriors 114-134
- W10/24vs New Orleans Pelicans 141-135
- L10/22@ Oklahoma City Thunder 84-96
NO
- L10/24@ Denver Nuggets 135-141
- L10/23@ Utah Jazz 119-120
- L10/21vs Indiana Pacers 120-123
Injury report
Latest update Oct 27, 2026
DEN
-
OutAlpha DialloOct 27
Diallo is out for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans due to personal reasons.
-
OutJulian StrawtherOct 17
Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver…
-
OutSpencer JonesOct 27
Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against New Orleans.
-
Day-To-DayCameron JohnsonOct 27
Johnson (ankle) is doubtful to face the Pelicans on Wednesday.
NO
-
OutYves MissiOct 24
Missi has been diagnosed with a left knee bone bruise and he will miss an extended period of time, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Quarters & race to
| Per game | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Paint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 27.7 | 26 | 25.3 | 29 | 46.7 |
| NO | 32.3 | 31.3 | 33 | 25 | 60.7 |
First to 10 / 15 this season
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 1 of 3 33% | 2 of 3 67% |
| First to 10, Q2 | 1 of 3 33% | 2 of 3 67% |
| First to 10, Q3 | 2 of 3 67% | 1 of 3 33% |
| First to 10, Q4 | 1 of 3 33% | – |
| First to 15, Q1 | 2 of 3 67% | 1 of 3 33% |
| First to 15, Q2 | 1 of 3 33% | 2 of 3 67% |
| First to 15, Q3 | – | 2 of 3 67% |
| First to 15, Q4 | 2 of 3 67% | – |
Head to head
| Meetings | DEN first | NO first | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 8 | 3 (38%) | 5 (62%) |
| First to 10, Q2 | 8 | 3 (38%) | 5 (62%) |
| First to 10, Q3 | 8 | 5 (62%) | 3 (38%) |
| First to 10, Q4 | 8 | 5 (62%) | 3 (38%) |
| First to 15, Q1 | 8 | 3 (38%) | 5 (62%) |
| First to 15, Q2 | 8 | 4 (50%) | 4 (50%) |
| First to 15, Q3 | 8 | 4 (50%) | 4 (50%) |
| First to 15, Q4 | 8 | 7 (88%) | 1 (12%) |
Meetings through Oct 24, 2026.