The read
Model: MIA by 4.7 · 239.9 total
Spread
SAC +9.5
4.8 pt edge
Game total
Over 238.5
1.4 pt edge
MIA total
Under 124.5
2.2 pt edge
SAC total
Over 114.5
3.1 pt edge
Moneyline lean MIA. Model against the spread this season: 54-69 (44%).
The situation
MIALast 5: 3-22 days restRoad game 4 in a row72 mi travel3-6 record
SACLast 5: 1-41 day restHome game 3 in a row1-8 recordLost 2 straight3 out: Simmons, Murray, Raynaud
Tale of the tape
116
109.2
46.5%
45.6%
33.1%
34.1%
13
12.1
73.9%
74.5%
19.2
16.9
10.4
10.7
32.2
29.6
29.2
25.3
15.2
15.7
8.3
7.7
5.1
2.9
20.9
23.8
114.6
111
46.0%
45.1%
33.3%
33.6%
12.6
11.5
77.3%
76.8%
20.4
19
9.6
12
32.8
30
29.6
24.2
15.4
14
8.6
6.2
5.4
3.8
20.6
24.8
Points, recent
Last 3: 111.3 vs 109Last 5: 121.6 vs 110.4Last 10: 116 vs 109.2
Projected lineups
Season per-game averages
Miami Heat
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Davion Mitchell | 16 | 1 | 8 | 54% |
| SG | Klay Thompson | 13 | 1 | 1 | 41% |
| SF | Andrew Wiggins | 8 | 3 | 1 | 39% |
| PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 27 | 12 | 5 | 56% |
| C | Bam Adebayo | 18 | 8 | 3 | 51% |
Sacramento Kings
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Darius Acuff Jr | 25 | 3 | 7 | 40% |
| SG | Zach LaVine | 22 | 3 | 2 | 48% |
| SF | DeAndre Hunter | 13 | 4 | 1 | 43% |
| PF | Keegan Murray Out | 7 | 3 | 0 | 28% |
| C | Domantas Sabonis | 15 | 14 | 6 | 72% |
Recent games
MIA
- L11/05@ Golden State Warriors 100-120
- W11/04@ Los Angeles Clippers 117-116
- L11/02@ Los Angeles Lakers 117-138
- W10/30vs Indiana Pacers 145-125
- W10/28@ Atlanta Hawks 129-117
- L10/26vs Dallas Mavericks 109-113
- L10/24@ Charlotte Hornets 110-115
- L10/23vs Detroit Pistons 111-128
- L10/21vs Minnesota Timberwolves 106-131
SAC
- L11/06vs San Antonio Spurs 109-124
- L11/04vs Los Angeles Lakers 103-116
- W11/02@ Dallas Mavericks 115-100
- L10/31@ Memphis Grizzlies 105-136
- L10/29@ New Orleans Pelicans 120-132
- L10/27@ San Antonio Spurs 103-130
- L10/25vs Memphis Grizzlies 112-123
- L10/23vs Portland Trail Blazers 120-128
- L10/21@ Los Angeles Clippers 96-121
Injury report
Latest update Nov 08, 2026
MIA
Nobody listed.
SAC
-
OutBen SimmonsOct 21
Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.
-
OutKeegan MurrayNov 08
Murray (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat.
-
OutMaxime RaynaudOct 26
Raynaud (knee) is progressing in his rehabilitation and will be re-evaluated in approximately two weeks, Brenden Nunes of KHTK Sactown…
Quarters & race to
| Per game | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Paint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 30.9 | 28.7 | 25.7 | 29.7 | 50 |
| SAC | 27.3 | 29.4 | 24.7 | 27.8 | 47.3 |
First to 10 / 15 this season
| MIA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 4 of 9 44% | 2 of 9 22% |
| First to 10, Q2 | 4 of 9 44% | 2 of 9 22% |
| First to 10, Q3 | 4 of 9 44% | 3 of 9 33% |
| First to 10, Q4 | 5 of 9 56% | 6 of 9 67% |
| First to 15, Q1 | 4 of 9 44% | 4 of 9 44% |
| First to 15, Q2 | 6 of 9 67% | 1 of 9 11% |
| First to 15, Q3 | 3 of 9 33% | 4 of 9 44% |
| First to 15, Q4 | 4 of 9 44% | 7 of 9 78% |